One year of war in Ukraine: three facts and two doubts for the future
One year after the start of the war in Ukraine, Livio Di Lonardo, assistant professor of Political science at Bocconi, highlights some elements that have emerged clearly, and at times surprisingly, in these 12 months. First of all, the role of the US in uniting the front of the Western democracies. Secondly, the resilience of European countries, which, albeit with some hesitation, have nevertheless responded promptly. Third, Russia's military difficulties. But if these three elements have become clear, two others make forecasting the development of the war arduous: firstly, the duration of support from European countries, within which public opinion may in the long run no longer support sending arms to Ukraine. Secondly, the credibility of Russian promises: how long would peace then last? Would we find ourselves in the same situation as today in a few years' time?