Election Year

WITH 76 COUNTRIES AND HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION CALLED TO THE POLLS, 2024 IS ALREADY A HISTORIC YEAR: BECAUSE OF THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE RESULTS, BECAUSE THE CHOICES THAT WILL BE MADE IN SOME NATIONS, FROM THE UNITED STATES TO THE UNITED KINGDOM, WILL HAVE MAJOR REPERCUSSIONS GEOPOLITICALLY BUT ALSO ON CLIMATE CHANGE. AND BECAUSE EVEN SMALL STATES LIKE BELGIUM ARE STRATEGIC. POLITICAL SCIENTIST CATHERINE DE VRIES EXPLAINS

No fewer than 76 countries across the world, including eight of the ten most populous countries, go to the polls this year. For the first time in history, then, more than half of the world’s population will be called to vote and more people will vote this year than in any past year. Crucially, though, not all elections are equal, and among the countries in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, only 43 will enjoy fully free and fair votes (27 of which are EU members) while another 28 do not meet the necessary conditions.
While the largest democracy in the world, India, may hold reasonably free elections, there is no hope of that in Russia where Vladimir Putin does not allow any real opposition. Even in a traditionally solid democracy like the US, the possibility of a Trump victory is enough to cause widespread concern.
But even with so many elections happening, it would be wrong to consider only the bigger players in the geopolitical scene, says Catherine De Vries in this interview: “A complex country like Belgium may be small, but it should not be overlooked.”
 
Political scientist Catherine De Vries holds the Generali Endowed Chair in European Policies – Shaping Leadership in Europe and is Dean for International Affairs at Bocconi. Her research activity has covered political behavior, political economy and EU politics, and her papers have been featured in many leading political science journals. Her first book, Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration (Oxford University Press, 2018) received the European Union Studies Association (EUSA) Best Book in EU Studies Award in 2019 and was listed in the top 5 books on Europe’s future by the Financial Times.
 
Professor De Vries, is this year really so extraordinary? Haven’t we already seen another year with so many important elections?
 
No. At least not since I began studying and researching politics and electoral processes. From the point of view of a political scientist, this is going to be an extremely interesting year.
 
Apart from the sheer number of elections that will take place, is there any reason to watch them closely, from a researcher’s standpoint?
 
Elections do not happen in a vacuum. Look at what the world has been going through in the past five years, which is roughly the duration of an electoral cycle: the Covid pandemic, Black Lives Matter in America, war in Europe and now another war in the Middle East. All of this, as well as increasing fallout from climate change, will play a role in shaping the way people cast their ballots. This all happens at a time of accelerated information flows, which also means that disinformation flows instantly. Assessing the extent to which these factors affect the outcomes will be an extremely complex, but an equally exciting task for election scholars.
 
You mentioned climate change. How does it affect national elections?
 
Climate change is the perfect example of a critical issue that cannot be managed at national level, yet people normally only vote for a national assembly. What individual countries are willing to do to fight climate change counts when an international agreement is being negotiated, but this is not necessarily voted on by citizens. And there are many other examples of interdependencies because, in an interconnected world, problems don’t stop at borders, but elections, except for the European Parliament, do happen within borders.
 
Which elections do you think are most important this year?
 
For us, as Europeans, the European parliamentary elections are going to matter most. Challenges, such as climate change and war, are strong warnings that Europe must take more responsibility for its own destiny, but this change must start from citizens. Later this year, Americans are going to the polls too and this naturally will mean a lot for Europe as well, especially when someone like Donald Trump could win. Finally, the UK will also go to the polls, perhaps at about the same time. The outcome of this election will be important for shaping EU-UK relationships post-Brexit.
 
What makes today’s elections different from the past?
 
Predictions are much, much more difficult now, and for one main reason: people’s voting intentions have become so volatile that producing a reliable projection is harder than ever. And that includes the decision to vote in the first place, so predicting turnout itself is becoming more and more of a headache. Until relatively recently, most voters stayed loyal to a party all their lives. This is over. So-called party strongholds are becoming rarer by the day as older, more loyal voters are replaced by volatile, younger people increasingly frustrated at the deteriorating quality of life and insecurity and therefore disillusioned with traditional parties.
 
Does any of this explain, at least in part, the rise of populism?
 
As I have said, defining causes and effects is not so simple. The roots of populism, and right-wing populism in particular, are a hotly debated topic among political scientists. But let’s say that in an age marked by uncertainty, it is understandable that people look for definitive answers for their problems. Right-wing populism, in Western countries at least, is fueled by two main concerns. One is the fear of getting poorer as factories close and mostly less-skilled jobs are delocalized. The other is about losing a national identity as societies become multi-cultural and “us versus them” thinking is rife. This is potentially a very dangerous mix, though we should distinguish between “radical” parties, that use a very strong language but accept to play by the rules, and “extreme” parties that more or less openly want to subvert these rules. Sometimes, radical parties soften their stances once in power. We’ve seen that in Italy and we may see the same in The Netherlands (which incidentally is my birth country) where a right-wing populist party has won the general elections but cannot govern on its own. So, the ambiguity here is about how far they are willing to go: there is a tradeoff between these parties feeding off polarization and the inevitable compromises that come with government.
 
Is there any country that we would be wrong to overlook?
 
I would say Belgium. It is easy to dismiss Belgium as a tiny country compared to the USA or the UK, but this is not important from a researcher’s perspective. Belgium contains many fault lines: left versus right; populists versus traditional parties; and, of course, Flanders versus Wallonia. A populist Flemish party, Vlaams Belang, is predicted to make big gains in the upcoming Belgian federal elections, and what happens next will be something to look at. And let’s not forget that most EU institutions are based in Brussels.
 
 
Read more:
 
Catherine E. De Vries-Sara B. Hobolt, “Political Entrepreneurs: The Rise of Challenger Parties in Europe”, Princeton University Press, 2020
 
Simone Cremaschi-Paula Rettl-Marco Cappelluti-Catherine E. De Vries, “Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy”, Harvard Business School, working paper
 
Catherine De Vries, “Migration crackdowns won’t help Europe’s moderate right”, Financial Times, December 4, 2023
 
“How Economic Hardship Fuels Support for the Far Right”, Bocconi Knowledge, February 21, 2023
 

by Andrea Costa