Geopolitics redrawn by Covid19

WHILE RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE TRYING TO CAPITALISE ON THE PANDEMIC, THE FORMER ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT AND THE LATTER TRYING TO ASSUME THE ROLE THAT THE US HAD AFTER WWII, EUROPE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CREDIBILITY IF IT ACTS WITH STRENGTH, COORDINATION AND SIMPLIFICATION

by Massimo Morelli, Professor of International relations

It is becoming finally clear to most people that nobody can protect themselves from the pandemic (as a state or even as an individual) unless we find a common solution or all follow a common procedure - efficient and cooperative. Free-riding incentives we are used to, basically, are self defeating. Humanity will have, for personal interest, to converge on more cooperative behavior and coordinated policies.

Political leaders are unfortunately not aligned yet though on this necessity. Full co- operation and coordination is not happening yet in Europe, at the economic level, and Russia’s attempt through an enormous number of fake news to depict democracies as inadequate to deal with the crisis is dangerous. But in this case I expect individuals to be much less receptive to such campaigns, unlike the past experience with populism’s appeal. To the point that even some populist leaders are distancing themselves from Russia’s official and unofficial rhetoric. China, more realistically, will try to play a similar role to that played by the US after World War II with the Marshall plan, using this phase “also” to gain additional credentials as a super-power. So both China and Russia are trying to capitalize on the situation, perhaps with the main (domestic) goal of making the likelihood of internal turmoil against autocratic rule lower (or even to expand power through a referendum on life-time effective power). The domestic goals (also made salient by the sequence of protests in Hong Kong and many other places before the Covid19 crisis) are the natural counterpart to the discrediting of European inaction for geo-political reasons.

Europe has a great opportunity to regain credibility and engagement by working full-force to coordinate economic efforts against the costs of coronavirus, and if German and Nordic countries block such an opportunity there will be a very high cost – very, very high - also in terms of institutional robustness and survival of liberal democracies. Corona Bonds are one of the many alternatives, but at this point they are symbolic . Agreement and coordination are an important symbol, so I expect at least as a signal something like that to happen.
Among the risks we face after the pandemic, beside those related to the many bankruptcies and economic hardships, there is a political one: democratic checks and balances could lose citizens’ support. In order not to give the impression that only auto- cratic rules can act quickly and effectively, democracies have to quickly act on the reduction of bureaucratic checks.

For example, inventions of new medical equipments or experimentation of new medicines should be evaluated faster, with fewer certification stages. A quick adoption of tracking and tracing coordinated instruments that respect anonimity could be an example that the negative features of autocratic control are avoidable. At a time in which complexity of the environment is very high it may be good temporarily to simplify decision-making. Strengthening the role of Europe has to happen with simplification and coordination, avoiding at all costs any additional bureaucratic level. My dream is an effective Europe, which may even convince individuals to sing the Europe anthem on the balcony while staying home.